Fearless Predictions for 2010

Cosmological Cabbage Fearless Predictions for 2010

At this time of year, everyone makes predictions about the coming year. I will join in the fun and and make a few myself. Here we go.

Interest Rates To Remain Flat

It is my prediction that interest rates will remain flat in 2010. That means that there won't be inflation, but there will not be huge returns from certificates of deposit. It also means that the US dollar will be weak in 2010.

Corporate Profits Remain on the Low Side

It is the Cosmological Cabbage prediction that corporate profits will be sluggish in 2010, reflecting a sluggish economy. Corporate bonds will have higher yields as investment vehicles, but associated with the higher yield will be higher risks of default.

The Price of Gold Will Drop

The price of gold will drop. Gold is traditionally a hedge against inflation or as a safe haven during war. The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan will become less scary, and with low interest rates there will be low inflation, so I see the price of gold dropping.

Real Estate Will Remain Sluggish in 2010

I can't see real estate rebounding in a big way in 2010. Real estate is a good hedge against inflation, but with real estate still down big time across America, there will be no rally in 2010. There is not enough demand and still a huge supply.

Non-Traditional Forms of Investment
There will always be rich people, and as the returns on traditional forms of investment dwindle, you will see a rise of non-traditional investment again such as art and sports memorabilia. I am reminded of the POG collecting craze of the 1990s and the big prices paid for collector POGS.

A Resolution To The Osama Bin Laden Mystery

Finally the Osama bin Laden mystery will come to an end in 2010. It will probably be this way:

Cracks Appear in China's Facade

China's growth and economy is unsustainable. Planned economies in Communist countries will eventually outgrow the ability to manage it. China is already on the verge of an environmental disaster, as well as human unrest.

Nutbars Will Proliferate

Unfortunately, a long term trend is the further niche fragmentation of society with more and more nutbars popping up. The trend is irreversible. Instead of a monolithic society, there will be more and more smaller groups, and technology has evolved to sustain these niche groups. So sadly we will have continual threat to the orderly operation of society from the nutbars that arise in these fertile grounds of societal fragmentation.

Warfare Changes Direction
In the entire past of human history, war was waged by men comprising of standing armies facing each other in battle. Beginning with the Vietnam war, we have seen a trend whereby a standing army faces guerrillas or an ad hoc army in a series of deadly skirmishes with no clear cut battles.

This trend will grow and the country fielding the army will be forced to conduct irregular warfare against civilian clerics preaching radicalism and hate, nests of enemies with some civilians and some not, and a blurring of the line of who is a combatant. As a result, war will be changed for ever. An army will have to conduct hostilities against a non-clearly defined but deadly army. The doctrine of war will have to change as well as the rules of engagement. War will become more localized and bloodier for those caught up in it.

This is our Cosmological Cabbage predictions for 2010.